Learning from the seminar of the new seismology

The strain of the crust can't accumulate
As for the earthquake theory based on the plate tectonics theory, a release of the accumulated distortion energy is a seismic cause. But, the distortion of the rock board is never accumulated. That reason is explained here.

Fig.1 Relations between the stress and the strain .

Fig.1 showed relations between the stress and the strain. This figure revised a figure in the book "An earthquake can be predicted." of the Sakayanagi Tsukuba university professor emeritus. Relations between the stress applied to the elasticity body, and the distortion were shown. It is said that the law of Hook functions while there are proportion relations in the stress and the strain. A metal isn't ruptured even if it exceeds the yield point of the law of Hook. Only strain only increases. As for glass and the rock board, it is understood that it is destroyed suddenly without yield point. Moreover, strain to accumulate before destroying it is slight quantity. A rock board (crust) doesn't have a nature like a metal. The elasticity of a steel like suspension of the car can't be expected. After it is destroyed, of course strain doesn't exist.The elasticity which sweeps the ocean plate isn't born.

Dr.Sakayanagi is criticized because seismologists think an earthquake forecast by the strain measurement to be possible. In other words, he mentions that it is an error to cling to the earthquake forecast like a land surveying. He is using the violent word of the people of the arrogance and the ignorance, the disorderly crowd and the pitiful group in that thesis. Extraction from that thesis is introduced.

(Abbreviation) .

The main road of the earthquake forecast is exhausted in the progress of the seismology. There is a person that politics is expected the next matter. It is to prepare the observation network which catches an earthquake phenomenon first. Then, it is to prepare the research environment where those second data can be analyzed fully. This is a plausible remark. Well, where of this is a problem in? There is a problem in the matter a seismologist is thought to have an earthquake phenomenon caught in the method like a land surveying completely. It is said that therefore it wants money and personnel. But, present observation is a part of the seismology, and there is no reflection that a method except for that may have it in the proper earthquake forecast. Still an earthquake forecast is difficult, and doesn't succeed in having researched for no less than thirty years. Those causes are such an arrogance and ignorance.

It considered what you should do when the research of the earthquake forecast began. So, present research was started by the proposal of the Hagiwara Takanori professor. If it researched for ten years, the quality of this method was thought to become definite. It is said that it was started in the talk to examine a result after ten years. When research was started, many interesting phenomena from the viewpoint of seismology appeared. But, it is said that it found that it wasn't connected with the earthquake forecast. The persons concerned in an earthquake should have reflected very much at this time. It couldn't may reflect because it began spellbinding of the Hagiwara professor. Or, it may be because only thought came across it like small seismology and didn't think about the true nature of physics-like greatly. Whichever is taken, that is the whole responsibility of the seismology meeting.

Still the earthquake forecast affirmative side a land surveying is believed to be effective in the short-term earthquake forecast exists. This is disappointing, and it is very sad. But, an earthquake forecast denial side only says that it should work for the protection against disasters, and helpless without showing a method.

So, this book was written. I want an earthquake forecast seen from the point of view which was different from the present. (Middle abbreviation) .

That is probably a disorderiy crowd if the people of the earthquake forecast affirmative side insist on the need of the same measurement and the data accumulation and the possibility of the useful discovery from those data in the future. So it is the right path of the learning to reflect thoroughly if it can't be solved though it has researched eagerly till now. You should get rid of a usual method. It is true that it doesn't know the method of the breakaway. It is therefore to listen to the outsider's opinion. Then, it is important to examine various data in the emptiness heart. (Middle abbreviation) .

I think that a short-term earthquake forecast is possible. It is an earthquake forecast affirmative side in that meaning. But, that is by the method which was really different from the method till now. I am an earthquake forecast denial side with the matter that a method doesn't succeed like a land surveying.

A seismologist will want to find the beginning of a solution of an earthquake forecast from the land surveying method. But, that is the dream of the superior in the old days. The history of the research for thirty years shows that it doesn't succeed. They are pitiful group if still that dream is followed.

A seismologist should abandon how to think about before around here. Then, you should open up wider seismology. You should research the method of the earthquake forecast modestly on that.

The above is extraction from the thesis of the Sakayanagi professor. A method which he proposes and to predict from the magnet drop is shown in the next figure. This principle is the same as the principle of the relief sensor of ANS.